I am sure I am in the same boat as the countless Saffas who witnessed the rollercoaster ride that was the Boks great escape on Saturday night. The Boks were outplayed, outmuscled, out strategized but for the dynamism of the Bomb Squad they managed to squeak out a victory. This will not go down in history as the best ever win for the Boks but who still talks about the turgid display against Wales in the previous RWC? The answer is no one. The mantra of whatever it takes is the Boks personified and credit must go to Rassie and Jacques for installing absolute belief in this squad to overcome all obstacles. The emotional and physical toll of the previous two weeks cannot be understated playing such intense matches back to back. The question is how much is left in the tank for the ultimate test against the All Blacks.
New Zealand by contrast had a much easier contest against an outmatched Argentina which will play a large part in how this final plays out. The All Blacks are looking better each week which is a dangerous prospect for the Boks especially after the mauling both the Irish and Argentinean packs suffered. The All Blacks will be planning to use this advantage by running the Boks off their feet by keeping the ball in play for longer and minimising set pieces. They have the pedigree to do this if they have clean ball from the rucks which they didn’t get a whiff of in the warm up game they lost so badly. I expect an almost identical All Blacks team and why not as they have done so well together as a unit. The other factor that will come into play is the weather conditions as it is looking more and more like a cold wet night will be the order of the day. This could favour both teams for different reasons as a wet night means more mistakes leading to more set pieces with the Oxenator wreaking havoc. It also limits the Bok tactics as we saw on Saturday how they struggle to get momentum in wet conditions with smaller wingers struggling in the up and under contests. It would make the game more of a forward battle and the Boks will back themselves given their pedigree but heavy legs are heavy legs no matter who you are.
All of these factors will play heavily in Rassie and Jacques’ decision on the make of the team for what will be the ultimate test for this team. They could stick with the same team after they have done the unthinkable to win twice by a single point coming back from behind in very hostile environments. This way of thinking has its benefits as they will be confident and battle hardened for this encounter but the miles on the legs will be telling. The way I see it they have 3 options on the selection front, sticking to the same team and hoping they can eek it out, going for a 5-3 split and matching the All Blacks in a more expansive game or keeping it tight with some new players. The Boks have the pace and skill on the outside to run most teams ragged; added to the growth of this team’s attack makes it a tantalising option. The weather will be a major factor in whether they choose this option as they will revert to the traditional Bok way of playing in wet conditions. The last option is my preferred option which would be to freshen up the team with some tweaks and keeping it tight until the last 20 minutes for the future president Ox Nche to come on.
What would these tweaks look like? I think the obvious ones would be Faf and Handre to start as they seem the most capable duo of handling the pressure of these big matches. No shame on Manie and Cobus who have done a remarkable job for the Boks but these are not positions you can take a risk with. I also think Willie should start over Damian Willemse as he is so good at communication with the back three he will be better suited to handling the All Blacks kicking game. Also should the Boks need to chase the game Willemse has X factor that can crack open a tired defence better than anyone out there. Looking at the pack the changes I would choose Jean Kleyn over Franco Mostert who is a warrior but looking fatigued after the battering he has taken. Jean Kleyn is a work horse who will be a great help in the lineouts and his grunt in the tight is a big plus. The last hail mary type call would be Jasper Wiese in for Duane Vermeulen as he is feeling it in the legs more than most. He is not a young man and the intensity of this RWC would have ended many younger men. This match will be all about the contact area and no one embraces the challenge of running into a brick wall more than Jasper Wiese.
The question is do Rassie and Jacques play it safe hoping the tired legs can pull off a miracle and win against all odds? I think that they are too smart to think that the same team can pull off not 1, not 2 but 3 miracle matches. It will be gut wrenching for the men who don’t make the match 23 but the healthy atmosphere in this squad is all about the team first and not the individual. If the Boks somehow pull off this match, as I do consider them underdogs purely based on the torrid two weeks they have endured as opposed to the relatively easy semi for the All Blacks, they will go down in history as the best team EVER. I am talking better than the All Blacks with Richie Mccaw and Dan Carter as rugby is so much more even now with a multitude of teams able to win on any given day. Winning back to back Rugby World Cups and a British and Irish Lions tour will send Rassie and Jacques into the legends category of Bok rugby. The announcement of the team will tell us where the match will be fought but I don’t expect the team to be made public until the last possible moment. Hold onto your seat folks this will be a wild ride until all is said and done.
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