As we head into the quarter finals of the RWC we now know who will be competing for the coveted William Webb Ellis trophy and teams are either flying or limping into this portion of the tournament. I will take a look at the form rankings of the teams and would love to hear your opinion of who you think was deserving or not deserving of their place.
- New Zealand
Off the bat I have swung for the fences with my controversial decision but hear me out. New Zealand are peaking at the perfect time with a great match up for their style of rugby. They have undoubted pedigree at the knock version of the sport with some legendary teams across the years oozing composure under pressure which they will need in spades. New Zealand has X factor and grit which is exactly what you need to beat the metronomic Irish who will beat you into submission with slick move after move until a mismatch causes a dropped tackle which leads to points. The two places that this has to be disrupted is at set piece and at the ruck which the Boks showed but ultimately couldn’t execute accurately. New Zealand is better at the breakdown than South Africa so should be able to hold their own there but it’s at set piece they will need to go full throttle. I believe they can and they will have the answers for the Irish puzzle on attack and defence coupled with the experience of winning big matches to have enough to win.
- Ireland
Ireland have been the form team for the last few years with a group of players that have been together with the same style and coaches to hone what is a formidable style of play. They have an incredibly skillful and mobile tight five which allows them to play such a free flowing game requiring forwards to handle the ball more and cover much wider channels than traditional packs. It is almost as though the stars aligned with Andy Farrell with his league background and the crop of players Irish possessed at the time to create some shamrock gold dust. They do have a large reliance on certain players to pull the strings and without them they are vulnerable but the injury bug has not bitten them too bad yet with a few worries after the Scotland game but nothing major. In fairness had the Boks kicked their points or taken a few of the plethora of opportunities they would have won but the win column does not have a comments section. They have been on an incredible run but the All Blacks will cause too much havoc and the occasion will be too big for the Irish to advance.
- South Africa
Again courting controversy, picking the Boks above France will get the tongues wagging but I truly believe they are in a great position to spring the biggest upset of the World Cup so far. They have a core of players that believe in the Rassie model and can execute it with brutal precision. Having a clean bill of health in the match 23 is worth its weight in gold, Mapimpi was on the outside looking in with Cheslin/Kurt Lee having the upper hand. The beauty of the squad at the moment is that it is so solid that no one even blinks at the team selected as it almost picks itself. I imagine they will revert to a ‘traditional’ 6/2 split on the bench and use the power they possess to unlock the space on the outside for the speedsters. It is the best possible position being an underdog in this tighter than ever race to the finish line. The Boks are not good front runners so the loss to Ireland gave them a gift of not being the golden child of the tournament. They will thrive in this role with the partisan French crowd providing the backdrop to the us against the world feeling. I don’t like their chances to go all the way but I’m confident they will have the better of the French.
- France
Before the tournament it felt that France had all but been crowned champions before the very awkward opening ceremony even began. They beat a New Zealand team in a cagey affair after the All Blacks were smarting from the Bok thrashing. It wasn’t much of a spectacle as both teams looked too nervous to make a mistake rather than try anything risky. After that France coasted through a group that looked more like a St John’s Easter festival lineup rather than a RWC. They are coming into the quarter finals without having a recent hard hit out like the Boks (vs Scotland and Tonga) which means that their pack will be hit with a whirlwind of force they are yet to experience. Dupont is a true gift on the field but I struggle to believe that he will be the same player after his injury when the bullets start flying. The romance of France playing at home is in the air but the reality of winning a RWC will hit hard with the French flair meaning little in knock out rugby about small margins and big hits. I expect the crowd factor to play a role in the refereeing decisions but hopefully it doesn’t change the course of the match.
- England
This England team is about inspiring as an accountant convention with a core of players who look like they are going through the motions with little appetite for the fight. On paper they should be more competitive than they are but the seesaw coaching changes appear to have given them PTSD with all passion for the game gone out the window. The results have been as poor as the on field display with leaders like Mario Otoje melting into the background rather than grabbing the matches by the scruff of the neck. They appear so in between styles picking three different fly halves with completely different styles which just muddies the water of what they are trying to achieve. It looks like they need a full reset after the RWC as the team is losing appeal to the viewing public and I expect this RWC to be the nail in the coffin for any diehard fans.
- Fiji
Wow they have been a breath of fresh air to watch blending the raw power and skill of the islands with some tactical European nous of the players now plying their trade abroad. They have always struggled with consistency across 80 minutes and this could yet still be their downfall but with so much X factor you can never write them off. The win against England in the warm up match has given them some belief that they never had before. They have some amazing storylines which is why they are almost surely everyone’s second team. If they can get some set piece parity without leaking too many penalties early on they will be ready to unleash in the last 20 minutes if they are within striking distance. They have made heavy weather losing to the nuggety Portuguese team but I don’t expect it to dampen the next phase of the competition for them. It will be easier for them when nothing is expected of them as they have never been in a position where they are expected to compete with the big boys of rugby.
- Wales
Poor man’s South Africa minus Alun Wyn Jones and now Toby Faletau look nothing like the team they were on Gatland’s first swing at the job. They were lucky to win against Fiji and have shown a complete lack of evolution in the game plan. It looks like they took the 2019 tactic book and scratched out the date with a sprinkling of new players. I find them hard to watch as they are so predictable in their game plan and execution and this is coming from a Springbok supporter!!! They have some talented players like Reece Zammit on the wing but have no intention of using him outside of kick chasing. They will always be competitive because of the traditional low error game they play but it is like always playing for the middle knowing they will never be good enough to beat the best so they don’t even try to.
- Argentina
Argentina has been the biggest disappointment of all with such a large regression with the same group of players it beggars belief as to why. The pedigree of the players is not in question but they have lost all the fire in the pack with a once feared team looking toothless. I remember the days of Lavanini vs Etzebeth being talked about the entire week before a test match but now he seems lost in the tight exchanges. Cheika is no fool but he is not getting the best of his charges with little improvement in sight. They are merely making up the numbers in this RWC with no one even mentioning them with any realistic chance of challenging the top teams. They look like they need some new blood and I expect them to have a mass wave of international retirements post this debacle of a season.
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