We are getting to the business end of the pool stages at the RWC and we can start to see how the teams are lining up after the dust settles. We have seen Ireland, France and New Zealand have hit outs with varying degrees of success. Should South Africa win against Ireland they will top the pool and face New Zealand in the quarterfinals as they will finish second between hosts France who beat them handily in the first game. This now is the conundrum for the Boks as to who would be the easiest team and route to make it out of this very tough section of the draw. The public line will be of the course we want to win every game and it doesn’t matter who we play because to be the best we need to beat the best. Behind the scenes the scheming would make a tender meeting in the Eastern Cape look tame.
Looking at the first and most obvious option – beating Ireland and then playing NZ. This has its merits as it would give the team an enormous boost beating the number 1 team in the world at a neutral venue. This is no easy feat as Ireland are at the top for a reason with a very sound game executed by a team that has been together for years. The temperament of the Irish team at such an occasion will be a more interesting question as they have never advanced past the quarter final stage of the RWC in its history. Leinster was the European fan favourites to go all the way but they choked for a second year in a row and the Irish team is made mostly of this same team. One has to wonder if the mental scars of not being to win when they are supposed to win will be playing a small part in this team’s make-up. This battle within a battle is very intriguing and it has more to do with how Ireland handle the occasion rather than the Boks as they are the marginal favourites. So let’s say the Boks take care of business and then have New Zealand to contend with for a right to make the semi finals. The Boks would be red hot favourites to not only beat NZ after beating Ireland but to take the RWC. This position of favourites traditionally does not bode well for the Boks so the pressure will be going through the roof and I don’t like the odds of the Boks handling it. After dismantling NZ in a record breaking performance of the warm ups the world will be expecting more of the same and writing off NZ is a foolish game especially in the RWC.
Say the Boks lose against Ireland which would not be a huge surprise as they are world number 1 along with having some of the world form players in the Northern Hemisphere. It will be a war in this game and it will almost certainly leave some soldiers wounded before all is said is done. This would give the rest of the teams in the tournament a marker as to who is the team to beat and how to do it. The Boks would then need to lick their wounds and tackle hosts France in Paris with the wind in their sails coupled with a very vociferous crowd. This would be, on paper, a tougher match than the Irish but bear with me for a moment here. The French beat a weakened NZ off the bat and then had to coast through the pool stages before their first big test. The French are temperamental at best and up against the coal face of a hurting Bok team would test the fabric of this team like never before. Should the Boks beat the French after losing to the Irish they would be flying higher than any other victory. The draw would then open up for them to potentially play Ireland or NZ again in the finals which will be 50/50. The French have lost some key players and are looking razor thin in some positions to compete at this level which would be exploited by the Boks who have a powerhouse squad to pick from.
In conclusion I think that the best route for the Boks is for them to play France in the quarterfinals rather than New Zealand. The combination of the Boks not being the tournament favourites and the French having some chinks in their armour to exploit means that I favour the route less travelled. Losing to Ireland would not be the most appetising prospect for any Bok fan but New Zealand are the old foe that always seem to have their number especially when it counts. The Boks won the last RWC after losing a pool game so this is not anything new but the prospect of winning the RWC with such a tough draw would surely mean this team would go down in history as the best EVER. It is a case of bad options for the Boks but we will know very soon which path they need to take in order to make the impossible possible.
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