The RWC is well under way and we have been able to see all of the big teams in action so now I will delve into who looks good and who doesn’t.
Number 1 – France
After all the talk leading up to the RWC France had some lofty expectations to live up to and although they didn’t light the field on fire they handled the occasion far better than New Zealand to emerge victors. Winning the RWC is less about playing the perfect game but rather about handling the big moments better than the opponent on the day. South Africa would put up their hands and admit they were rarely the best team in 1995, 2007 or 2019 but they managed the big moments better on the day. This French team has the look of a team that is mature in these pressure moments but are yet to handle adversity which will be the ultimate test. For now they are the clear number 1 team but as they say a week is a long time in professional sport.
Number 2- South Africa
It was not the most convincing all round performance but a very important first step in the direction of moving the juggernauts forward. The team seems to have successfully transitioned from a one dimensional power team to having a varied style of attack with the Manie Libbok cross kick showing that development. Credit must go to the brains trust of Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber for realising that this team needed to add the power game to do the unthinkable and be repeat RWC champs. They have some chinks in key positions especially at fly half which may come back to bite them later in the tournament should the injury bug strike.
Number 3 – Ireland
Many pundits had this team as the out and out favourites for the RWC but I think they have too much reliance on key players who pull the strings and without them they are vulnerable. Sexton must be the most annoying player in the world but he is a master game manager and leads the team from the front through his boot or his mouth. I see their pack as a potential weakness in that they are great when things are going their way but I don’t know how much desire they have to go to the dark places when the match turns into a rock fight. The draw does no favours for the first 3 teams but if anything it will hopefully produce the best candidate to move forward to win the RWC if they aren’t too battered and bruised.
Number 4 – England
This was a tough pick but they made Argentina look very one dimensional with a man down and that is no easy feat even though Cheika’s men are well past it. George Ford is a World Cup flyhalf and although he fails to inspire in the 3 years between World Cups I would pick him right after a reliable tight head prop in my English squad. I question the buy-in from the players with the ‘new’ era of Borthwick as he is a poor man’s Eddie Jones who has done nothing but take Eddie’s blueprint with Eddie’s players and tweak it. Players will still have some hold over from the previous regime and getting them to flush that way of thinking will be key to get the necessary buy-in from the team. They have the benefit of having the easiest draw in RWC history (outside of South Africa in 2019) to make it to the finals so they have plenty of time to shake off the rust now that they have the Argentina test in their rear view mirror. Winning like losing is infectious so the longer this team stays in contention the more dangerous they will become which will be the biggest obstacle for whoever survives the France/Ireland/South Africa/New Zealand slugfest.
Number 5 – Australia
I don’t know what to make of this team as they have had such up and down performances on the pitch it is difficult to predict if Jekyll or Hyde will be playing. Eddie Jones is no fool regardless of how he comes across to journalists or anyone willing to publish his controversial sound bites. He is the past master of mind games and distraction which he will need to bucket load to help his young team handle the blinding light of outside pressure. The beauty of young players is that they don’t have the scars of previous failures so are more willing to cut it loose (in my best Aussie accent) but the learning curve needs to be steep for them to succeed. My feeling is that Eddie has gone too heavy on youth, hoping the mercurial Gordon will pay off over some experienced hands like Quade Cooper. He realises like we all do that they don’t have the players in the stable to do better than quarters or semis at best so he is swinging for the fences which is a win win. If they win he is a genius immortalised in the annals of RWC history but if they lose he can say we didn’t have the squad so I risked it all but we have a jump on the next one with the youth brigade.
Number 6 – Wales
Sigh…I wish beyond all wishes I had Fiji in at number 6 but the poor mans South African team Wales come in behind Australia. If we ever wondered how little ambition Warren Gatland had for innovative rugby on the British and Irish Lions tour we look at Gatland taking a second stab at the Welsh job. When I say poor man’s South Africa team I mean in the most derogatory way because they play a simpler version of the power/defensive South African 2019 style but worse. The grand total of Welsh ambition is to add 3 players instead of 2 to a ruck on a defensive set before lining up and tacking again and again hoping for an opponent’s error. It is beyond infuriating watching them with Louis Reece-Zammit on the wing and not using him in any meaningful way besides chasing kicks. It is a sad state of affairs in Welsh rugby in general that after surviving the almost player strike and then not having the ambition to hire anyone beyond a previous coach who is on the back end of his career not the way up. They will plod along and make up the numbers but will struggle to inspire any hope in their future will the risk averse nature of the coaching setup.
Number 7 – Scotland
Yes they are ranked higher in the World Rugby Rankings but their style is not suited to World Cups and as much as I like Gregor Townsend unless they start breeding front row forwards in some bog in the Highlands of Scotland they will continue to be on the fringes. Townsend is a smart coach and the style they employ is designed to nullify their lack of big men but eventually as the cliches goes rugby is won upfront. They have two really exciting wingers but the moment they were bullied in the pack they were not even mentioned in the contest against South Africa. I expect to compete with Ireland for 20 minutes and then fade.
Number 8 – Fiji
If one country could be an advert for the new rule allowing players to return to their home countries it is Fiji, they have captivated many supporters and are a delight to watch. They still get unstuck by traditional nations planning territorial matches and waiting for them to counter attack from the wrong side of the field to come unstuck. The infusion of players who have been plying their trade abroad has helped the collective thinking of these players to make better decisions on the field but still not where it needs to be to compete at this level. The raw natural ability of these guys is something to be in awe of with such humble facilities compared to the tier 1 nations they shouldn’t even be remotely competitive yet they were unlucky not to be Wales.
Number 9 – Italy
Italy is a classic backup to the prom date, they are always in the wings keen as mustard but would certainly not be the first choice. They have flashes of brilliance but are so hampered by depth in certain positions that they will never be competitive on the grand stage. The good they do on the field is almost always undone by poor decision making and athletes out of their depth on the field. They are better than the semi professional nations in the pools but only by virtue of having players in the URC and abroad who are exposed to the level of playing at the professional level. I expect France and New Zealand to make statements with considerable score lines against them in the not too distant future.
Number 10 – Japan
Japan has made the jump from being able to make the odd surprise result to looking like they belong at this level. The Japanese league has so many top quality players that it is helping the local talent believe that they belong at this level. They have an identity which suits the makeup of their players and the mentality of the team which is what South Africa discovered at the previous World Cup. Having an identity allows them to groom the players that fit into the mould that they want to play instead of trying to get the players to play the style that they want. They will always have an issue adding grunt to the pack but having a smattering of International players will give the right amount of hardmen to make them competitive at this level. Argentina and Samoa is not a good matchup for the style they want to play as they will get bogged down in the physical nature of the contest which will limit their ability to up the tempo and run the larger men off their feet. Nonetheless they are great value to watch and vital to the future growth of the sport.
Number 11 – The rest
We haven’t yet seen Samoa and Tonga with the former having a string showing in the warm up games and pushing Ireland down to the wire in very Irish conditions in pre World Cup play. Tonga are struggling to match the levels of previous World Cups and the loss of Israel Folau will hurt more than the play he offers on the field. Georgia are as expected, gnarly and combative but still lack the real exposure for the greater squad to be able to last the full 80 minutes at this level. Individual players are really impressive especially in the front row through European exposure but as a collective they are not going to trouble the major nations. The minnows are soaking in the atmosphere of professional rugby and rightly basking in the glory of making it to the pinnacle of professional rugby but they will be nothing more than making up the numbers.
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