Boks
The settled Boks team has a sense of being comfortable both in personnel and expected game plan. The changes of Cobus Reinach for Faf de Klerk and Franco Mostert for Pieter Steph du Toit was almost a certainty after the final whistle blew in the Boks famous victory. Cobus is considered a better kicking scrumhalf to Herschel Jantjies which gives him the edge but there will be pressure to kick the box kicks as pin point as Faf especially early on. Moving Franco to flank worked like a charm on the weekend and it allows the Boks to start Lood de Jager which gives us a real advantage in the lineouts. The question will be how long can Lood last after only playing sparingly in the first two games since coming back from a big injury. When Lood is subbed hopefully after 50 minutes Franco will slot back into lock and the Boks have Kwagga Smith and Marco van Staden as finishers. This team shows a settled approach for this weekends decider with the tactics working and the players who can execute the game plan ready for action. I suspect the 5-3 split on the bench has more to do with who would be the extra lock/flank cover rather than a tactical decision. Rynhardt Elstadt had limited success when he had a chance and Dan du Preez hasn’t played enough recently to warrant risking him in such a big game. Morne Steyn is also a great option if Pollard breaks down to slot the kicks if it is close at the end. All in all no real surprises with Vermeulen considered a wild card if he miraculously recovered from his ankle injury. One forgets the plethora of planned Test matches after the Lions tour so better to have him in the fold sooner rather than later.
British and Irish Lions
One has to give Warren Gatland some credit, he is very brave and more than happy to take some risks with selections. His team tells me three things, firstly he cannot win with a scrum and pack going backwards so starting Wyn Jones and hard man Ken Owens as well as sticking with his heavier loose trio is his attempt to solve that riddle. I question how much puff the locks Alun Wyn Jones and Maro Itoje have left after two enormous shifts the last two weeks and I can’t see them replicating that again. Secondly his back three was shown up under the high ball barrage and he has picked Liam Williams and Josh Adams over Stuart Hogg and Anthony Watson. Nearly everyone expected the changes but not Duhan van der Merwe keeping his spot and Watson dropping out completely. The Boks will see van der Merwe as a potential weak link under pressure and will pepper him all day. Finally Gatland has realized that he cannot play the same style of rugby especially in the second half and expect to win against a superior Bok pack so he has thrown the dice with players to take some risks. With Finn Russell, Eliott Daly and Sam Simmonds on the bench they will be looking to expose some gaps in the second half when players start to tire. This selection on the bench feels like an all or nothing approach from Gatland knowing that they can’t live with the Boks power in the second half. Having Bundee Aki at inside centre and moving Robbie Henshaw to outside centre has more to do with not having a 13 who has any sort of penetration in the first two games and this will at least offer them some gain line options on attack and defense. The Boks won’t be overly worried about the more attack minded selections as the stifling rush defense has the ability to shut it down and convert off turnovers.
It comes down to this third and final Test with all to play for. The coaches have been noticeably quiet this week and it feels they are battened down the hatches before an explosive final match. The Boks have all the momentum but the Lions have more than enough talent to beat them on the day. I just hope that we aren’t sitting here next week talking about the referees and rather about an epic conclusion to an epic Test series.
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