Looking at the teams selected this week for the first test speaks volumes about what each coach expects from this game.
Boks nervous about fitness
The selection of Ox Nche and Trevor Nyakane to start over Frans Malherbe and Steven Kitshoff shows us that the Bok brains trust are worried about the Boks being undercooked. Anyone with eyes with tell you that Frans is a better scrummages than Trevor but the ability of Frans to go 50 or 60 minutes is in question with his forced Covid break. On paper it seems like a huge risk but in fact it is really smart because the damage of Frans running out of steam before the end of the first half and Trevor having to carry the load for more than 40 minutes could be the difference in a tight match. The loose head choice from Jacques Nienaber is less of a risk but more of an understanding how Ox and Steven are vastly different in styles. Ox has a large engine and can get to positions on the field most props could never which will be needed with the up tempo Lions especially in the first half. Steven can hit rucks and move people which is vital if the game is very even in the second stanza and goal line defense is the order of the day.
Bomb squad explodes without Frans Steyn?
One could argue that Damian Willemse showed he is more than capable of fulfilling the Frans Steyn role of covering all backline positions outside of scrum half. As Nienaber mentioned this is again a fitness issue with Handre Pollard and Makazole Mapimpi short of game time and the risk was too great not having cover. Again this shows smarts from the Bok leadership in acknowledging a potential problem and addressing it. I foresee the bomb squad to be adopted for the second and third tests especially with how physical we expect Saturdays encounter to be.
Gatland responds to Bok power game
Warren Gatland is clearly more worried than he will admit about the pummeling his team took at the hands of the SA A team because he has picked a pack that is designed to match the Boks upfront not continue the globetrotter style of the tour thus far. Courtney Lawes and Jack Conan are much larger and physically imposing than Tobe Faletau and Hamish Watson which is the clearest indication that Gatland sat up and took notice of the Boks power game. Also picking Alun Wyn Jones in the starting team is also to front up the Boks as he is a talisman for the Lions to which they can rally. He won’t make the full game but his inspirational story of recovery will give the Lions some fire in the belly to start the game.
Lions have almost zero regular combinations
Looking at the Lions team is hard to imagine picking a team that has barely had the opportunity outside of practice to play together in combinations. This is something that is generally considered vital on a tour of this nature to get players who are more used to playing against each other than with each other ready to go. For example scrum half Ali Price hasn’t played with fly half Dan Biggar, Robbie Henshaw and Eliot Daly haven’t played in the centre together, the back three haven’t started together and neither has the loose trio. This could be a massive risk going into the first test or a stroke of genius finding the perfect combinations just in time. Expect the Boks to try to disrupt these combinations early on to see where the chinks in the armoury are.
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