What we know:
Springbok team selection
The Springboks are set on who they want to be playing in the 23 come Saturday with Covid 19 protocols and match fitness putting a few key cogs in question. Handre Pollard and Siya Kolisi are the biggest losses if they aren’t deemed ready to start on Saturday but Morne Steyn and Marco van Staden are more than capable replacements. The SA A match against the all-conquering Bulls showed the massive divide between the starting Boks and the chasing pack. Outside of Aphelele Fassi and Jean Luc de Preez no one looks remotely ready to take on the Lions if needed. It sounds dire but it really isn’t the end of the world because the coaching team now has the answers they need going forward.
Springbok lack of fitness
The Boks will struggle in the last minutes of at least the first Test match with the preparation less than ideal with only a few players as fit as they need to be. This places a huge emphasis on the bench to make an impact and play possibly longer than they would normally. It also means that the Boks cannot get down early on the scoreboard because they won’t have the legs to chase a game in the last quarter. Lack of fitness can be negated by smart decisions from the playmakers and I expect the starting fly half will be key in controlling the tempo deep in the pocket.
Springbok are running out of loose head prop options
Springboks have a problem at loose head prop after the SA A game experiment playing both Coenie Oosthuizen and Thomas du Toit out of position. They will be desperate for Ox Nche to come through the protocols or they will be targeted in the scrums. At tight head we have more than enough cover and I wouldn’t be surprised to see man mountain Wilco Louw leap frog a few players into a shot off the bench.
What we haven’t learnt yet:
Lion’s team selection
Warren Gatland has a tough week selecting his starting team as it is very up in the air which way he will go. I believe it is a lose lose situation by getting it down to the last minute the players are unsure who will start in the loose trio and back three which can be disruptive for team unity. Fly half also appears to be an issue with Dan Biggar nursing an injury and Owen Farrell looking clueless when he doesn’t have a target to shoulder charge. Gatland might be tempted to pick the most mobile team possible to use the superior fitness and tempo game to their advantage but risk losing the battle of the contact area. I expect controversy no matter who he picks this week but have no doubt they will be ready.
Refereeing influence
How much will bad referring influence the outcome of the tour is something that will be worrying to all involved after seeing some blunders from referees around the world over the past week. Jaco Peyper will be the first to admit that he didn’t have a great game and missed an obvious scrum penalty at the end of the game. Ben O’Keefe was enemy No.1 for the Aussies who were left fuming after a debatable red card against France. I do believe that it will influence the games but hopefully it won’t be the difference between winning and losing as that will be tragic.
Covid 19
How much will Covid 19 wreak havoc with the teams before all is said and done is very much unknown. We don’t know how some of the players will recover from testing positive and whether they will be affected fitness wise. We don’t know what will happen if there is another outbreak in either squad that, if bad enough, could derail the whole tour. The flexibility of both squads have been commendable but say they don’t have enough props for a match day 23 nothing can be done. Will the tour stay in Cape Town? No one knows at this stage as Gatland suggested it was all but certain but we have received no word from the ever quiet SA Rugby setup.
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