The easy answer to this question would be wins right? Not exactly. These midweek games are more about sharpening the squad up for the main course – the three Test matches. When people look back at the tours the results of the matches outside of the Test matches are quickly forgotten. Look at the previous tour to New Zealand where the Lions had a torrid time trying to impose their will on the very capable New Zealand franchise teams. This set of tough matches one could argue prepared them for the ultimate test against the best team in the world at the time, the All Blacks.
Looking at the teams the Lions will face before the Test matches in South Africa they will encounter a good deal of physicality but shouldn’t be overly tested as the depth in New Zealand outweighs South Africa. I expect the Lions to have their way at set piece but be pushed in the loose with some high tempo play from youngsters eager to show their mettle. This should make for some very enjoyable encounters but I expect the Lions to win them all pretty comfortably. Looking at history this is not a good thing, in 2009 the Lions won all of the warm up games but looking woefully unprepared for the physical onslaught the South Africans brought on game day. Warren Gatland will know this and I expect he will use his second stringers to provide the hard contact in practices to prepare the players as the SA teams won’t be able to keep pace.
The SA teams lack depth in the forwards to truly challenge the Lions and Gatland will know this and not read too much into the results. It will be more about getting match fit, testing combinations and having the reserves on the same page should they be called up. One thing that they cannot afford is any more injuries to key players as the Japanese match is already costly to the team. To increase the hunger amongst the squad I imagine Gatland will keep competition fairly open especially at lock and flank where any number of combinations could be starting against the Boks. One thing that the squad has to be prepared for is Covid cases in the squad which is now becoming inevitable in teams around the world. This potential disruption has be expected and handled as quickly as possible to ensure the least amount of mental disruption for the players. The key here is flexibility and Gatland appears to have thought about this with the selection of some players who can fill multiple roles like Courtney Lawes and Owen Farrell.
This Test series will be about how prepared the backroom staff is with potential speed bumps just as much as the players who are called up to do the job on Saturdays. Warren Gatland strikes me as a no nonsense coach who thinks of every eventuality but again so does Jacques Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus. This is what makes this tour so much more intriguing than previous ones because of the unknowns and how the chess pieces will be played. There will be many twists and turns before all is said and done.
Bring on the first match, I cannot wait!!
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