Welcome to Sports between the lines where we analyse all things rugby from players to teams and current trends. Today is our first episode and we are starting off with something that is very exciting here in South Africa – the British and Irish lions Rugby tour. This is a massive event on any rugby fans calendar as it only happens every 4 fours and every 12 years for each of the Southern Hemisphere power rugby nations (New Zealand, Australia and South Africa).
Much has been said about Warren Gatland’s selections for this tour and looking across the names he has clearly watched the World Cup Rugby Final very closely. During that match England were outgunned physically and tactically (sorry Eddie) by the South Africans who were clearly the better team on the day. Gatland has selected a team that he hopes will be able to match the ferocious physicality the South Africans are renowned for and add some X factor game breaking ability with the likes of Louis Reece-Zammit and Sam Simmonds.
Today I want to focus the selection posers for the Springboks as they have not played an international match since that World Cup final in 2019. Looking at the squad that won the World Cup one would say very little needs to change, Beast Mtawaria and Francois Louw have retired but everyone else is still actively playing. The problem lies that the team is scattered across many countries and many competitions at various stages of completion. The South Africans have been bashing into each other through a variety of home grown competitions aimed at giving the audience something to watch and the players match fitness whilst we can’t travel overseas due to Covid 19. We have heard at length about the continued aligned camps be it over Zoom or in person but the biggest alignment problem is going to be match fitness and match readiness. The overseas players not recovering from injuries in Europe and England are battle hardened from an almost uninterrupted season whilst the local South Africans are only now beginning to shake off the lockdown rust in the Rainbow Cup by evidence of the low quality error ridden affairs we have been watching. Throw into the mix a new coach in Jacques Nienaber who is not new to the Springbok setup by any means but new to his role as head coach. His and Rassies’ ability to player manage the squad during the Georgia warm up matches is going to be crucial in the build up to the Lions tour. Players needing more game time to improve game fitness need to watch closely next to players who need to monitor the gas left in the tank after a long European season. This truly is a jigsaw puzzle that will test the Springboks ability just as much off the field as on it.
Now for the squad selections themselves, I don’t expect too many wildcards in the team selection outside of Lock and Flyhalf where the Boks are very thin on available players who can stand up the pressure of a Lions tour albeit without fans. Much of the Springboks game plan revolves around set piece dominance coupled with an accurate reliable kicking game. This will not change but the players that need to execute this namely the locks and flyhalfs will be tested under immense pressure to deliver. The nature of the short turnaround from the time the squad gets together before the tourists set foot in South African means that very little of the structured game plan will be altered now so expect lots and lots of kicking coupled with a rush defence aimed to creating pressure and mistakes.
Let us look closer at the 2 areas that the Springboks will struggle with depth and start with flyhalf. Handre Pollard is coming back from injury and looked the part but has had very limited game time for Montpellier that it is almost impossible to judge where he is physically and mentally. He is a player that needs time in the saddle running the attack and taking contact so expect him to play a large part in the warm up games against Georgia. Outside of that Elton Janjies is in France as a medical joker for Pau and by all reports has been doing well but he is a different style of flyhalf to Pollard and for that reason I expect him to be 3rd string behind…..yes you guessed it Morne Steyn. Soon to be 37 years old reminds me of Stephen Donald stepping up for New Zealand and delivering when needed. He has proved to be an inspired recruit by Jake White’s Bulls team that has dominated the local competitions since Jakes arrival. Morne is as fit as he has every been and can adjust his game to suit various game plans and conditions. For this reason he has the edge on Janjies who has become a talisman for a young Lions team but never quite made the jump up to international competition. Don’t forget that Frans Steyn is also in the wings to cover multiple positions in the backline and wont do the Boks number flyhalf position any disservice. Other flyhalfs have too many fundamental problems that can’t be fixed in time. i.e Curwin Bosch’s defence and Damian Willemse’s questionable BMT.
At lock the Springboks look to be in even larger trouble with injuries to Eben Etsabeth (Finger), Lood De Jager (Tibia) and RG Snyman (knee) leaving Franco Mostert as the only lock left standing from the World Cup squad. I expect some out the box thinking on the selections here as Lock plays a vital role in the style of rugby the Boks plays and prides itself on. JD Schickerling looks to tick all the boxes required by the Boks by will little to no international experience it is a risk but at this stage unless Bakkies Botha comes out retirement whoever is selected will be green. I think Jean Luc du Preez has a great chance after impressing for Sale Sharks as a number 4 enforcer who is happy to do the grunt work up front. He does have a few issues with discipline which will be tested by a fiery Lions pack but none the less he is my wild card pick.
Thanks for joining me at Rugby between the lines with your host James Clow, please let me know what you thought about the predications and who you think will be selected.
Until next time, goodbye.
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