What we know and haven’t learnt yet going into the Springboks game against Australia

What we know.

• The Boks have a very settled look about them when it comes to player selection with the only decisions to be around Faf de Klerk and Duane Vermeulen coming back from injury straight into the starting lineup and if Cheslin Kolbe overcomes his leg injury. The alternatives being Cobus Reinach, Jasper Wiese and Sbu Nkosi who are all able replacements that have proved themselves against Argentina. The look of the front row could go either way with who starts and who finishes but the embarrassment of riches upfront means the level is world class.
• Expect the rush defense to be going on all cylinders when the whistle blows after seeing the Aussie panic with long passes against the All Blacks and give away more intercepts then a mediocre high school team. Capitalizing on mistakes is the mantra of the Bok defense and the Aussie will provide them with opportunities galore with an eagerness to spread the ball wide at any whiff of space out wide.
• The Boks won’t want to play anywhere near the tempo that the Aussies pride themselves on and I expect the Boks to drag the speed of the game down. By putting pressure at the breakdown and forcing the Aussies to commit potential runners into cleaners with force them to kick more as they won’t have the numbers on attack. To aid with the slowing of the tempo I expect the Boks to place huge emphasis on the territory game and kicking into space will aim to get the Aussies to have to kick to touch rather than back into play.
• The pressure is on the Aussies to perform as they have been rather limited in responding to the All Blacks in every facet of the game. The changes made by Dave Rennie look to the future with some exciting new prospects but one could say the level has collectively dropped off since he has taking over. The Boks don’t have a great record playing in Australia and if they win both games the calls for Rennie to be replaced will grow louder as his tenor has come with great speeches but very little in way of results.

What we don’t know.

• We don’t know how the Boks will attack the Aussies as we traditionally play a more expansive game against either Australia or New Zealand but the tried and tested ‘boring’ rugby has been effective it will be hard to see them moving too far from it. Don’t get me wrong we will kick contestables and maul until the cows come home but they brains trust will be tempted to test the shaky Aussie defense with some phase play. The Aussie aren’t known for winning the contact area and this could be an area the Boks target around the fringes before unleashing some of the X factor guys out wide. It would be a risk going away from what has been a mostly winning tactic but this team will need to evolve and this could the two matches to try add some wrinkles on attack that we haven’t seen before.
• The Boks have been in a quarantine period for two weeks with allowances for gym sessions and training every day without any hotel staff in contact with the player’s i.e no cleaning of rooms or serving of food. We don’t know how much this has affected their state of mind as these bubbles are very tough on individuals far from home and family but also on the conditioning of the players. They might be limited on what they can do during the training sessions and how this will affect match fitness will only be known come Sunday. The Boks game plan, even as slow as it seems, takes great deals on energy in the contact area winning collisions and rushing up as fast as possible. We saw this in the first Lions Test with the Boks a step slower which improved with each week. This away bubble will be testing and this first match will be the hardest to judge on how it has affected the Boks.
• Playing in front of large crowds is something as a professional sports person you come to accept but during these Covid years it has fallen by the wayside. We don’t know how the crowd factor might affect the momentum of the match with the Boks not used to crowds especially if the bounce of the ball goes against them early on. Even small things like making calls on attack or defense become harder with a loud crowd which may have some effect on the Boks ability to manage the game.
• We also don’t know how good the All Blacks are as they have beaten what looks like a rebuilding Aussie team and haven’t been under any sort of pressure. We will have a measuring stick after they play the Argentineans, who should be outmatched in all facets, but they have surprised the All Blacks before. This weekend will give the world a chance to see where all the teams stand after such a prolonged time not playing against each other.